Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, who nailed the 2008 election, looks at some recent Gallup numbers and speculates there may remain only five red states:
just five states, collectively containing about 2 percent of the American population, have statistically significant pluralities of adults identifying themselves as Republicans. These are the “Mormon Belt” states of Utah, Idaho and Wyoming, plus Nebraska, plus Alaska. By contrast, 35 states are plurality Democratic, and 10 states are too close to call
Anyone who paid even a tiny little bit of attention to the house vote yesterday can see how this is happening: a tiny, partisan, and increasingly disconnected Republican minority is monolithically voting in opposition to the beliefs of the business community, the majority party, and a plurality of Americans. To cite just one example, take Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart. He opposed the stimulus plan because it lacks, “accountability, oversight and infrastructure.” When Americans with even the faitest glimmer of spark in their brains hear this guy, a Republican demanding accountability, it’s a joke, a farce.
And so the pack thins, and grows hungrier, and angrier…